The Ukraine Navy patrol boat was burned through the Black Sea, its 25 -millimeter double -barred machine gun on the horizon. The enemy, Russia, was not in sight, but always present. In the dashboard, Captain Mykhailo and his crew scanned screens showing areas coded by colors marking Russian waters in the mines and red arrows that follow the drones that cause the area.
The crew mission was to defend the waters of Odesa, the port city of the largest Black Sea of Ukraine, and to maintain safe for commercial traffic. It has been an unpleasant job: cleaning the Russian mines by day, shooting drones at night, but after more than a year of patrols next to other Ukraine Navy ships, they have been successful.
The Russian Navy has been pushed away from the Ukrainian shoresallowing commercial shipment of Ukraine to Bounce to levels close to the pre -war. On Tuesday, the fruits of Captain Mykhailo’s efforts were materialized on the horizon: the silhouette of a 740 -foot Panama flag sliding to a Ukrainian port to be loaded with grain.
« Big Ship. Beautiful, » said Captain Mykhailo, talking about the condition that only his name and rank was used, according to the Ukrainian military rules.
Kyiv and Moscow committed to A cessation of fire in the black sea Last month during separate talks mediated by the United States, but Ukraine’s military and commercial successes in these waters have brought many to Oda to this question: Ukraine has something to win from a truce?
Despite the Fire cessation commitmentCountries continue to negotiate if it will come into force. And the navy officers and the business owners in Odesa have used the delay to weigh the advantages and cons of the agreement. A cessation of fire could save the ports of Russian Drone and Missile strikes, but it may also mean renouncing the strategic advantage of Ukraine in the sea, perhaps the only area on the battlefield where he has his upper hand.
« I do not want a cessation of fire, » said Tariel Khajishvili, the head of Novik Llc, a Ukrainian Maritime Agent who operates at Oda. « The only side that wants a cessation of fire is Russia because they no longer control the black sea. »
Ukraine’s skepticism has only deepened Moscow conditions for a truce: The lifting of some western economic sanctions and a return to a previous agreement on the back that allowed Russia to control commercial vessels, leaving the Ukrainian ports for weapons inspections: two non -initial demands for Kiev.
« Why should we make concessions now? We have effectively closed the Black Sea, » said Pavlo Palisa, a superior military counselor of President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, told journalists last week, pointing to Kiev’s success when pushing Russian ships outside the key parts of the sea.
Deep distrust also persists between the countries. The two parties have, in principle, agreed to temporarily stop the strikes against the energy infrastructure, just to accuse -with violations.
It is not clear if a cessation of fire in the Black Sea will come into force. Ukrainian military officials have stated that Russia has abstained from attacking Ukrainian ports since last month’s conversations, aligning with one of Kiev’s main demands, but they warn that it is too soon to call -the truce.
That Ukraine can now afford to reject a cessation of fire in the Black Sea speak volumes about the drastic change of fortunes.
Shortly after Russia launched her Invasion on a complete scale Three years ago, their navy ships were found 15 kilometers from the Ukraine coast, nearby enough to shoot directly. Captain Mykhailo, 27, recalled a strike that « destroyed a recognition station » on the outskirts of southern Odesa. In the city, Residents filled sandbags To fortify the defensive positions, taking advantage of an assault.
Russia never failed to comply with Odesa. But his navy controlled enough with the Black Sea to block the Ukrainian ports, quench the country’s economy and threaten global food safety Because Ukraine is an important grain exporter.
An agreement not broker In July 2022, he reopened a shipping runner for Ukrainian exports, but only under an agreement that allowed Russia to inspect all the commercial vessels of the weapons. Kyiv said Moscow deliberately slowed inspections to strangle trade. One year later, there were only two dozen ships Using the aisle every month.
Russia retired from this agreement in July 2023Complaining of the same economic sanctions that now seeks to have lifted and threatened all commercial vessels to Ukraine and to Ukraine.
To restart exports, Ukraine launched a campaign to return to the Russian Black Sea fleet, using drones and marine missiles to destroy or damage more than quarter of its main war vessels, According to British Defense Intelligence Services. The assaults forced Russia’s fleet to remove it in the eastern part of the sea, far from the Ukrainian shores, allowing Ukraine to do Ensure a new shipping runner This embraces its coast before entering the territorial waters of NATO members.
Captain Mykhailo said his patrol boat: an island class ship Given by the United States by 2021 – Accompany commercial vessels sailing on the Ukrainian shores, « providing mines, from Russia’s aerial attacks. »
Now more ships travel through the new aisle than during the UN Agreement. Black Sea food exports are also close to pre -war levels. Last year, Ukraine sent 42 million metric tonnes of grain and oil, about 80 percent of its volume of pre -war, according to data collected by the Ukrainian Investment Investments Dragon Capital.
In this context, experts see little benefit for Ukraine in a cessation of the Black Sea.
A return to the UN Agreement, according to Russia, « can reverse all the success of the Ukrainian corridor assured by the Ukrainian military, especially if the inspections of ships are reintroduced, » said Natalia Shpygotska, a senior Dragon Analyst. « I can’t see why Ukraine should accept » this demand, he added. « It doesn’t make sense. »
According to experts, all experts could win in Ukraine. These attacks have damaged several ships And he destroyed numerous containers and grain silos. At the height of the aggressions, in the second half of 2023, the export capacity of the Ports of Odesa dropped up to 20 percent, according to Yurii Vaskov, ex -Deputy Minister of Ukraine Infrastructure.
Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, said that « for Ukraine, a cessation of fire in the Black Sea means mainly stopping attacks on the port infrastructure so that our grain runner can function without interruption. »
« There is nothing but Russia can offer us in this agreement, » he said during an interview with Odesa.
This offer, however, was absent from the statements of the White House announcing the cessation of the Black Sea last month.
Andrii Klymenko, the head of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, said he did not expect the two parties to establish a sea truce, as their conflicting demands. Suspect that Russia wants to use the truce to move some of its ships again to the central part of the Black Sea, which has Kyiv already warned it Would indicate the counterattacks.
Back on the boat of Captain Mykhailo, a cessation of fire feels as distant as always. The iron boxes of the machine guns are ready to use them on the roof. On Tuesday night, the crew emptied -several, firing in Russian drones who headed for Oda and his outskirts.
« Unfortunately, we were unable to demolish them, » said Captain Mykhailo, although none seemed to have reached the ports that night, according to Ukrainian authorities.
« For me, nothing changes, » he added. « It is to fight as usual. »
Daria MitiK and Maria Varenikova Contributed reports.
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