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Recent tariff data and consumer decision -making is clear: to increase the prices of a product due to the highest import taxes and consumers will become a cheaper alternative.
This is not OK for certain United States products and the states where they occur, as a The United States and the EU are involved in Tit-Pertat Tariff Threats. Consider California almonds, whiskey tennessee and michigan mirror.
Since 2017-2019, Tennessee’s whiskey exports to the European Union have dropped from $ 362 million to $ 220 million in the middle of the first trade war of President Donald Trump, and exports remained down until retaliation rates were suspended, according to a recent partnership world research report. The 2018 Trump rates were suspended by the administration of Biden in January 2022.
« Once the EU lifted the rates, Tennessee’s exports of whiskey increased by 42% a year, » said Daniel Anthony, president of commercial collaboration worldwide. « But Tennessee’s exporters know how to reduce sales again. »
On Thursday, Trump threatened 200% of EU wine and alcohol ratesand he said he « Will not bend at all » When it comes to the rates that are charged to the imports of other nations. Its treasure secretary, Scott Bessent, told CNBC not to understand Why would the markets make a big problem Of this threat, but for some North -American states, the EU is a great market.
Unlike the rates imposed by the Trump Administration, where North -Americans must pay the rates To receive their products, the reciprocal rates would be imposed on North -American exports who pay EU importers. High prices could decrease demand or close a market.
« There is an expectation that companies will lose sales as EU consumers go to less expensive options, » said Anthony.
The data collected by commercial collaboration worldwide show that the value of American exports that could be subject to rates would increase five times, from $ 6 billion (based on the original Trump rates) to more than $ 27 billion.
« This is a significant fare expansion in previous exports, » said Anthony.
EU Retail Rates They are established in two sections: the products arrive at the last time they are being received on April 1, and then the expansion of additional products, subject to more discussion, which could be promulgated in mid -April.
In a percentage manner, new EU retaliation rates show that North New York and Dakota companies can have the highest part of exports in cross -country cross games, which can affect demand on their property: New York (39%), North Dakota (36%), Nebraska (32%), Iowa (26%) and Virginia Western and Virginia (26%).
In an absolute dollar, some of the states of the Eastern and Gulf with the main ports are among the most important states facing the new EU rates, including New Jersey, Georgia, North and South Carolina, Virginia and Texas. The products of these states vary widely, from alcohol tobacco and tobacco products, peanuts, frozen and fresh orange juice, food oils, motorcycles, dishwashers, clothes, footwear, furniture and rugs.
But Anthony said that this is California almonds, Tennessee’s whiskey and Michigan Mirror Mirrors, which are some of the best examples of acute risk and market need: « The EU is the largest buyer of these products and the retaining rates will hurt much more. »
Brandon Daniels, CEO of the Corporate Risk Management Consultant, said that the EU rates are placed by Nord -Americans in whiskey at a substantial competitive disadvantage.
« States like Tennessee and Kentucky, the economies of which are significantly dependent on this luxury export, would feel acute economic pressure. This is where politics and trade policy collide at the moment, » said Daniels.
File Photo: Whiskey barrels are placed in a truck at the Jack Daniel Distrinch of Lynchburg, Tennessee, USA, on February 3, 2025.
Kevin Wurm | Atmosphere
Tennessee companies exported $ 575 million in whiskys in the EU in 2024 (66% of their exports to the world).
By 2024, California exported $ 1.2 billion to shell almonds in the EU. The European Union represents 37% of California exports to the world.
Outside Michigan, companies exported $ 519 million in later EU mirrors in 2024 (48% of their exports to the world).
In the automobile sector, companies have more room to negotiate.
« In previous fare conflicts, we have seen that North -American exporters of critical car components, such as Michigan’s precision electronics, often partially absorb retaliation’s costs, » said Daniels. « Although essential components will continue to flow, North -American producers often share fare pain with their European buyers, as neither party can afford to have the total cost alone. This shared load highlights the interconnection of the car supply chain. »
Red states beyond whiskey states will feel the pain
In the world of manufacturing, the molybdenum, which is used in the production of steel, lubricants, pigments and as a catalyst for the oil industry, is a great export for Arizona to the EU. By 2024, Arizona exported $ 304 million to the EU (89% of its exports to the world).
South Carolina exported $ 223 million to Ethylene’s flexible co -lamers in the EU in 2024 (59% of her exports to the world). This chemical is used in packaging, hot fusion stickers, car components and building materials, due to their durability, flexibility and adhesive properties.
Several other plastic resins also passed the list of South Carolina and Virginia of the West, where companies exported $ 146 million in plastic resins in the EU in 2024 (59% of their exports to the world).
In some areas, the current United States trade imbalance will influence negotiation.
With a commercial deficit of registration goods of about $ 236 million by 2024, the United States is based on Europe for high -value manufactured products such as vehicles, pharmaceuticals and industrial equipment. But these are sectors where North -Americans have a significant advantage through directed rates, Daniels said.
European automobile manufacturers exported vehicles worth about $ 54 million in the United States in 2022, and told exports of North -American automotive industry to the EU. Would put a north -American rate directed in this sector Significant pressure on European manufacturers – Particularly Germany, whose car industry only includes more than 30% of Europe’s total exports in the United States, he said.
According to customs data raised by demand, pharmacist Represent the largest export category in Europe in the United States, about $ 92 million a year.
« Although pharmaceuticals through the rates can be politically delicate, it would directly affect European pharmaceutical giants, creating strong incentives because Brussels negotiated. Although 200% increase the wine and liquor that Trump announced that it could hurt, it will not refer to trade, » said Daniels.
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