A few years ago, the scenario that Canadian and other NATO troops rehearsed Latvia last week, it could seem unthinkable, even alarmist in the non -formed eye.
In a clay formation with mud, in winter, about a dozen kilometers outside of Riga, approximately 3,400 soldiers of 14 nations, under the leadership of a Canadian commander’s brigade, served as a last trench defense in the Latvian capital.
The Stark stage opened 30 days to a hypothetical invasion of the Baltic State by a belligerent neighbor with a forgotten and false name.
Everyone knew that « the enemy » was Russia, but no one was talking about the name.
Exercise deployed the same week as relations between the United States and Ukraine launched in deep freezing A game of ugly and televised shouting Involved President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.
The idea that Washington moves more closely to Moscow’s orbit is being attentively to Latvia. The country has witnessed Russian bases in the Baltic, once troops and facilities were emptied due to the Ukraine war, which is now recommended and returned.
The three Baltic States (Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania) have increased the fortification of their borders with Russia. But there is nervousness as to whether the United States honor the Holy Grail of the NATO treaty, Article 5, which stipulates an attack on a member is an attack on everyone.
The Minister of Defense Latvian, Andris Spruds, told CBC News in a recent and exclusive interview that his country would like to see more NATO troops on the ground and more military equipment preparing the small nation for the necessary reinforcements that would occur during a crisis.
« There is space and space for a (larger) and stronger presence, » said Spruds in an interview, which was broadcast on Saturday CBC Radio’s The house.
« We must remember that the Latvian border is the external border of the European Union and NATO. Thus, it is not just to protect Latvia, to protect the region. It is about protecting the eastern flank, but it is also about protecting the Allies of NATO and the EU. »
The western military alliance has organized the defense of Latvia under a multinational division, which includes the Canadian brigade led by the Canadian. The division is led by major Danish. Jette Albinus, who also told CBC News in a recent interview that a cessation of the fire – or full settlement of peace in Ukraine – would allow Russia to direct its full attention to the Baltic region.
In mid -February. The Danish Institute of International Studies published a report that Russia is likely to continue its military accumulation in both the Baltic and the Arctic regions.
Albinus says that the Denmark Intelligence Service has evaluated that peace in Ukraine, although welcome and necessary, would increase the level of threat at the border with the Baltic States.
« There is no doubt … that the threat will increase here, » said Albinus.
« It just makes me put on my sleeves and prepare -even better … you have to show them that you are ready to fight and defend Latvia and the Baltic. »
Moving troops in a crisis
The question of NATO military planners since the alliance troops first unfolded in the Baltic in 2017, is whether the contingents could be strengthened and re -supplied in a crisis.
The current plan for the defense of Latvia sees Canada, Denmark and Sweden than rush additional troops in the country. The question is: Can Russian submarines come to the Baltic Sea, and maybe the air space was closed?
Albinus said it is safer that the sea lanes will remain open now that Sweden and Finland have joined NATO.
There are also large -scale plans to strengthen the Baltics through the railway system, said other allied commanders.
Colonel Henrik Rosdahl, the Swedish machining battalion commander, who is part of the Canadian-led brigade, said that his goal is to make sure that the troops already deployed can be maintained and struggled in the event of an invasion.
However, he said, Sweden, like Canada, is in the process of reconstructing his army.
« I’m sure? I would say that, » Rosdahl told CBC News. « We will have problems with a significant force (in Latvia), as we are building our national defense forces, while we are talking. »
But he added that the question of reinforcements is something that the political and military leadership of his country was better positioned to respond.
The Canadian army commander, LT.-Gen Mike Wright, who was in Latvia for the exercise, said he is « happy » with the level of preparations of the Brigade led by Canada, and said that the Germans have a brigade in Lithuania and the United Kingdom leads a separate in Estonia.
« We are not alone, » said Wright. « We are part of this deterrent and collective defense of the Eastern NATO flank. »
Last year, the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) examined what a war on the Baltic would look like and how it would reproduce geopolitically.
The report concluded that Russia would probably be able to earn rapid gains in the Baltic region, even with NATO reinforcements, and that Kremlin could within three days after opening the hostilities traveled to blackmail, informing « NATO that any attempt to occupy the new Russian Baltic Obastos will cause a nuclear response. »
Given the threats of Trump’s administration to acquire Greenland « one way or another » and to annex Canada through economic strength, the CEPA stage – like the war game in Latvia – no longer looks very unpleasant.
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