A dubbing of American rates over Chinese goods. Chinese nationalist bloggers comparing President Trump’s fees with a declaration of war. The China Ministry of Foreign Affairs promoted Beijing « to fight to the end. »
For years, the two largest powers in the world have flirted with the idea of economic decoupling as tensions have increased between them. This week’s acceleration, both in actions and in words, of the deterioration of its commercial relationship has made the perspective of a divorce look closer than ever.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration carried out its threat to increase the rates to Chinese exports by an additional 50 percent, unless China terminated its own retaliation rates in North -American merchandise last week. The minimum tax on Chinese imports is now an impressive 104 percent.
With the leader of China, Xi Jinping and Mr. Trump closed in a chicken game, each of which did not want to risk looking weak by making a concession, the commercial struggle could spiral out of control, inflaming tensions over other areas of competition such as technology and the destination of Taiwan, the island that took place for Beijing.
The Trump’s Tactics make it a unique force in United States politics. But to Mr. XI, he faces an opponent who survived the crisis of political purges in China in the late twentieth century, and who considers the United States competitive tactics, as he ultimately went to subvert the legitimacy of the ruler communist party.
« Trump has never entered a background fight where the other side is willing to fight and use the same type of tactics as he, » said Scott Kennedy, a leading consultant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington Think Tank. « For China, this is its sovereignty. This is the power of the Communist Party on power. For Trump, it might only be a political campaign. »
The economy of China, which was already in a vulnerable state due to a real estate crisis, is now facing the spectrum of a global recession and a devastating deceleration of trade, its definitive industry and the main engine of growth. In a sign of Beijing’s growing concern, Chinese censors seemed to be blocking Hashtags social network search that referred to the number 104, as in the size of the North -Americans’ rates.
« This is a huge shock for China-EUA economic relationship, like an earthquake, » said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies of the Fudan University of Shanghai, said on Wednesday the imposed rates. « It remains to see if it is a temporary agitation or an inevitable tendency in the long term. »
By the way, a U.S.-Disopulated-Chinese is still far from becoming a reality. Chinese and North -American companies like Tiktok and Starbucks are still rooted in the other. And Chinese banks remain hooked on the financial system dominated by the US dollar.
China and the United States are still in the Brinkmanship phase, said Kennedy, who sought to force the other to offer an agreement with a bent knee. But the root could be more dangerous if the Trump administration goes after Chinese financial institutions, for example, terminating the licenses of Chinese banks in the United States or tearing down the international payment system.
By promoting the movements of Mr. Trump, Beijing has been launched as a victim of commercial practices and unfair American protectionism. The irony is that China has done the same, if not worse, during the decades, limiting foreign investment and subsidizing Chinese companies.
Mr. XI did not make a direct comment on the last rates of the United States. On Wednesday afternoon, however, shortly after they came into force, the Chinese state media announced that he gave a speech at a meeting with the other six members of the Politburo Permanent Committee, the apex of power in China, as well as other maximum officials. In it, Mr. XI asked officials to strengthen the bonds with the neighbors of China and « strengthen industrial cooperation and the supply chain ».
A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Lin Jian, led to new rates, saying on Wednesday that China « would never accept this arrogant and bullying behavior » and that « it is definitely reprisal. »
Any fracture between Chinese and American economies will feel around the world. The business was the basis of the bilateral relationship for almost five decades. Without this, his commitment to other global issues, such as security, climate change and future pandemic crises and financial crises, would probably stop.
China has tried to reduce its vulnerability to the economic chaos triggered by the Trump administration. He says he has reduced his confidence in American markets for his exports and that his economy is becoming more self-sufficient, especially when it comes to developing home technologies.
But work on serious problems in the Chinese economy, which have largely been stagnant due to a collapse in the real estate market. In addition, Mr. Trump’s assault on the global commercial system, which includes countries oriented such as Vietnam, where Chinese companies had opened factories to prevent North -American rates, strike in the center of one of the only bright points in China.
The fall of commercial interruption will hurt the United States, which is based on China for all types of manufactured assets, but will make more damage to China, said Wang Yuesheng, the director of the International Institute of Economics of the University of Beijing.
« The impact on China is mainly that Chinese products have no place, » Wang said. This will rent the export companies that do things such as furniture, clothing, toys and appliances along the eastern coast of China, which are largely to serve American consumers.
« These companies will be very hard, » Wang said.
The threat to China’s exports composes the challenging task of recovering foreign investment, which has undergone an exodus from Covid pandemic and the introduction of strict national security laws that made businesses in China more difficult.
Mr. XI has tried to retreat foreign investors, hosting a group of executives abroad last month in Beijing. In a speech, he said that China’s development was due to the leadership of the Communist Party, but also the « support and help of the international community, including contributions made by foreign -funded companies in China. »
Beijing’s strategy is now to return to the United States and wait for Mr. Trump to succeed domestic pressure to reverse the course, said Evan Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University, who served as President Barack Obama’s Asia consultant.
« They know that if they give up pressure they will get more pressure, » he said. « They will resist the belief that China can withstand more pain than they can. »
Until then, China’s leaders seem to be turning around the country for a prolonged struggle. A sign: Influential bloggers have been authorized by the crisis and suggesting ways of retaliating against the United States.
One of them, Ren Yi, a Chinese blogger educated in Harvard, which is called the « Rabbit President » pen, listed six potential contractors, including restrictions in China to American service companies such as law firms and consulting companies; Trim the imports of poultry and north -American soybeans; And finish co -operation with Washington by reducing the flow of Fentanyl in the United States.
« The trade war, » he wrote, « it is not simply an economic friction, but a » smoke -free war « . This must be understood from this perspective. »
Vivian Wang Reports provided by Beijing.
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