The flags of China and the United States are printed on paper in this illustration taken on January 27, 2022.
Date of Ruvic | Atmosphere
Beijing-The risks of an intense trade war in the US China are rapidly increasing, according to analysts, after Beijing responded more strongly than many had expected in the last rates of United States President Donald Trump.
In a tone change, China also abandoned its call for trade negotiations in a weekend statement that condemned U.S. taxes, increasing the prospects for an extensive period of fare climbing.
« China has taken and will continue to take decided measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests, » said the China Foreign Ministry of A statement on Saturday.
Beijing on Friday retaliated with 34% levies on all north -Americans – It coincides with the latest functions of the Trump administration. They arrived on them on top of the 10-15% Chinese rates collected at March and Februarywhich had focused on agricultural and energy products imported from the United States
« Increasing the rate to all American imports for the same amount as Trump’s last rate demonstrates China’s determination to resort to anywhere they want to be, » said Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai.
As part of the wide measures of retaliation, Beijing also put export sidewalks Earnings of rare roof keybanned exports of Double -use articles to a dozen United States entitiesespecially in defense and aerospace industries, and put 11 north -American companies « List of unreliable entities » undergo broader restrictions while operating in China.
« Beijing’s aggressive stance states that future retaliations will be more forceful, putting a scalieting spiral and increasing the odds of disrupting -not managed in 2025, » said a team of analysts in the Eurasia group on a note.
China’s response will probably lead to more rounds of United States’ rates to try to discourage similar movements from other commercial partners, according to Eurasia group analysts, saying that « some Trump officials see it as a unique time to double China to try to accelerate a disobedience of commercial bonds. »
Beijing’s rapid response was at the back of the Trump ad of the additional 34% rates in China, increasing the US weighted average weighted rate rate in China to 65%, according to Robin Xing, China’s chief economist in Morgan Stanley.
This could reach the second largest economy in the world at 1.5 to 2 percentage points this year, love Xing, citing a slower growth of exports and rooted domestic deflation.
Negotiation box
Beijing’s change to a more « aggressive and climbing » position makes a short -term agreement to end the trade war between the two « very unable » superpowers, said economics economists.
Until last Friday, Beijing’s actions were considered relatively restricted and measured. Trump had also made warm comments praising Chinese President Xi Jinping and expressed his interests in organizing a bilateral meeting.
« Abandonment of containment » in Beijing’s latest retaliation measures probably reflects Chinese leadership « diminished the hopes of a trade agreement with the United States, at least in the short term, » said Gabriel Wildau, general director of Teneo in a note.
Trump resulted in China’s last response as a panic act. In a Publish on the Social Networks Platform TruthsHe said that « China played it badly, they went into panic, the only thing you can’t afford to do! » The President has said he would consider Lowering the rates in China While Beijing approves the sale of short video applications, Tiktok to United States investors.
But Beijing may not be on board with sale. « National dignity is the key consideration of Beijing in Tiktok, but Tiktok’s exchange for newly imposed rate relief would lead to the unmistakable discomfort of China’s leaders giving in to bullying, » said Wildau.
Eurasia Group’s analysts, however, suggested that Beijing still want an agreement and is willing to negotiate. « Strong, asymmetrical, tit-for -tat fare retaliation is a preview for Beijing to reach the negotiation table, » they added.
Without discarding negotiations with the United States, Daily’s Daily State Post In a work of opinion, Beijing was « fully prepared in all aspects to manage possible shocks » with a large policy room to defend it.
Daily People, which is frequently used for transmitting official policy opinions, exposed Beijing’s plans to counteract economic fall by increasing internal consumption « with extraordinary strength », decreasing key policy rates whenever needed and extra fiscal ease.
The decrease in an agreement between Beijing and Washington has aggravated a global market route, sending the Hang Seng China Enterprises index, which tracks the Chinese actions contained in Hong Kong, more than 13% Monday, establishing it for its worst day since the world financial crisis.
The performance of China’s ten -year government obligations caused 9 basic points up to 1.634%, according to LEG data, while Yuan out of the sea weakened 0.35% up to 7,3212 per dollar.
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