Russia and Ukraine have said they are engaged Stop fighting in the Black SeaBut it is not yet clear if an agreement can come into effect soon, if not.
Russia had a great warning: the agreement would only be after several restrictions on their agricultural exports were removed. The penalties were imposed by the United States and the European Union, and to eliminate -it would be an arduous process.
Kyiv and Moscow also seem to have different interpretations of the agreement suffered by the United States announced on Tuesday. Russia frame As a way to revive an agreement with 2022, which gave him some control over commercial shipments through the sea. Kyiv, however, insisted It would not allow the Russian navy to return to the western black sea, which Ukraine uses in its main maritime export route.
Highlighting the distrust between the two countries, each side accused the other of breaching the truce on Wednesday. Ukraine reported an attack on his port city of Mykolaiv, while Moscow said he fired two Ukrainian drones on the Black Sea.
Russia’s conditions showed how the war is not in a hurry. With a friendly administration in the White House and, as their strength has a higher hand on the battlefield, Moscow has been decided to obtain as many concessions as possible.
What were the terms of Russia?
It Said kremlin It would not accept a maritime cessation cessation agreement, unless its state agricultural bank and other financial institutions involved in the food and fertilizer trade were re -connected to the international payment system known as SWIFT.
The system is headquartered in Belgium, which means that the United States should pressure European regulators to agree. In a statement As for the agreement, the White House pledged that « it would help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural exports and fertilizers. »
Moscow also said that Western companies would remain in Russia’s deliveries of agricultural equipment and sanctions were eliminated against their companies, vessels and insurers involved in the food and fertilizer trade.
Russia says its exports of grain and fertilizers reached $ 45 billion by 2023. Even during the war Russia has exported record volumes of grain and fertilizers, said Andrei Sizov, director of Sovecon, a Russian consultancy.
If sanctions were raised against a Russian state bank, Kremlin could also use it for other transactions, Aleksandr Kolyandr, a Russian analyst at the European Policy Analysis Center.
« When you have a bank without sanctions, you can use it for everything you want, » Kolyandr said. « It can be an instrument to break the sanctions regime, » he said, but « it is much easier to control a single bank. »
What is Ukraine’s position?
Although Kyiv said he would fulfill the maritime cessation, he remains skeptical of Moscow’s intentions.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, of Ukraine, said on Tuesday that the demand for Russian lifting sanctions showed that « they are already trying to distort agreements. »
Zelensky also said that the United States’s commitment to help strengthen Russian agricultural exports was « a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions. »
Given the demands of Russia and the different interpretations of the two parts of the agreement, it is still unclear what the Ukraine take. Experts say that the White House did not say if the agreement would protect the Ukrainian ports from Russian attacks and will reopen the ports of Mykolaiv and Kheson, two demands that Ukraine had promoted during the negotiations.
Kyiv also has little interest in returning to the UN Agreement of 2022 that Russia wants to reanimate. The agreement allowed Ukraine to export its grain through an agreed black sea hallway and Russia inspect all business vessels to ensure that they did not carry weapons.
But Andrii Klymenko, the head of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, said that the inspections delayed the exports that made the route not profitable.
After Russia became out of agreement, Ukraine reached its own shipping runner for pushing the Russian navy by the western parts of the Black Sea. That allowed marine grain exports To return to loan levels almost.
What can happen after?
Last week, in a telephone conversation with President Trump, President Vladimir V. Putin de Russia agreed to stop attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days. Ukraine, who has been in favor of immediate immediate cessation, followed the same. The two countries have reaffirmed their commitment to instituting a 30 -day moratorium on energy strikes.
On Tuesday, Kremlin listed facilities under the moratorium. It includes refineries, pipes and storage facilities, nuclear plants, hydroelectric prey and energy transmission infrastructure. The Kremlin also said that from his perspective, the moratorium had come into force on March 18, the day of the call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin.
Both parties have accused each other of attacking electricity networks last week. The energy situation of cessation of fire stands out as Moscow was portrayed as open to negotiations without significant concessions.
Rusem Umerov, Ukraine Defense Minister, Said Tuesday that « additional technical consultations » were needed to effectively carry out energy and maritime agreements.
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