Ready for the Oscars party … but not so much the prizes?
That would make sense. Since Emilia Pérez The star Karla Sofía Gascón The racist Tweets resurface, to It BrutalThe use of AI, in allegations of « category fraud » (do not worry, we will come), it has been almost impossible to keep us up to date with the academy’s controversy, even for those of us who have paid for it.
So, for those with a normal one to five, a trap sheet could be useful before the 97th Academy Awards is published this Sunday, March 2.
To help -we have gathered some of the most important categories, their projected winners and even threw in some jokes in the event of discomfort, along with all the nerds orders you need to look like you have been seeing throughout the season.
Better picture
Probably: Aor
Maybe: Conclude
Should (no) win: Emilia Perez
If you climb Aor Triumphs will be the lowest winner since 1977 Hall annie (Excluding pandemic, digitally released Coda)). If it fits inflation, it would be among the lower ones, showing how the prizes have been derived even Farther from the public.
If latecomer Conclude He manages a disorder (presented by his best film prize at the Bafta and Cast Awards at Screen Actors Guild Awards), things could feel a little more on the court. Its gross is north of US $ 100 million.
Previous frontrunner Emilia Pérez Almost definitely goes home with empty hands here but with his huge 13 nominations Now stained by the controversycould earn a different distinction. If you win only a prize, it will be the most losing film in the history of the Academy. If only two wins, it will be tied with Becket and Johnny Belinda (nominated by 12, winning -ne one) and The turning point and The purple color (Nominated by 11, winning head). If you lose everything, well, it will be crazy, right?
The best director
Probably: Sean Baker, Aor
Maybe: Brady Cornet, The brutalist
Should have won: RAMELL ROSS, Nickel boys
Cornet is competitive here but Baker’s Aor definitely favors. The winners of the BAFTA Direction categories and the directors Guild of America America almost identically import the best director of the director at the Oscars, but this year there was a division, with Cornet winning the BAFTA, and Baker collected the DGA prize.
If you are looking for an advantage, Baker has the rare distinction of gaining personal nominations in four categories, which could be sought by the Academy when determining which director had the most participation in the conformation of his vision. If Baker won all four, he would coincide with a prestigious record: only Walt Disney and Bong Joon have won four in one night, although the « Film International » Award by Joon Parasite Technically went to South Korea.
He was not nominated here, but Ramell Ross deserves it. Having made only documentaries before, their Nickel boys exploded in a critical conversation for use of Platforms mounted on the actor Tell a first -person POV story about racial injustice.
The best actor
Probably: Adrien Brody, The brutalist
Maybe: Timothy Chalamet, A complete stranger
Should win: Sebastian Stan, The apprentice
There have been some murmuries Oh, used to improve Brody’s dialogue in Hungarian languagebut The brutalist The actor will probably add a second Oscar to his cabinet. If Timothée Chalamet, 29, manages to win, would surpass the record of Brody as the youngest winner in the category.
It will not succeed, but Sebastian Stan deserves gold here for his subversive and precise representation of a young Donald Trump before he became President of the United States, as well as the difficult and unlikely that the film ever reached.
Trump’s demand threats against the film coincided with the distributors that were Political movies and documentary. He also arrived at the festival circuit shortly after the participant: the activist study of the previous Oscarscar winner Dissemination and An inconvenient truth – closed the doors about an apparent Decrease in the appetite of films aimed at inspiring social change. Stan’s winner would be a defiant sign, if unlikely, of the Hollywood protest.
Best actress
Probably: Mikey Madison, Aor
Maybe: Demi Moore, The substance
Should have won: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Tough Truths
In an even closer competition than the director, all candidates would be a winner for the first time. Demi Moore has a Cinderella story spread over in it Discourse of Golden Globets earlier this yearAlthough his turn of Mikey Madison Aor It has it at the top of most betting cards. This is to ignore the actress snatched Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who should win for her ACTIONAL ACTION TO Hard truthsas well as the snatches From theThat he should have catapult Zendaya in his first nomination.
If Fernanda Torres is upset, she would be the first Brazilian actress to win. Her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, became the first Brazilian actress nominated in this category in 1999.
Best Support Actress
Probabrès: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Maybe: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Should have won: Michele Austin, Hard truths
Prepare -you are for « category fraud » discussions. The term refers to the idea that some actors are nominated in categories that do not fit the size of their role. Zoe Saldaña, the favorite favorite here, actually has more time than its co-star Karla Sofía Gascón, nominated for the best actress. My runner -up is Ariana Grande as Glinda a WickedShe is on the screen a few minutes less than her co-star Cynthia Erivo, also for the best actress. When Broadway actress, Kristin Chenoweth, was nominated for the same role in The Tonys, she ran to the main actor category, without supporting.
But the Oscars voters are able to decide on themselves who is « supporting », a process usually influenced by their campaigns of consideration. The producers who manage these campaigns prefer to divide their performers into categories, so they do not compete with each other. All of this ignores the fact that Michele Austin should win this category for his incredible work as a real support character in Hard truths.
The best support actor
Probably: Kieran Culkin, A true pain
Maybe: Edward Norton, A complete stranger
Should win: Jeremy Strong, The apprentice
Kieran Culkin is perhaps the safest bet of anyone at the awards. He faces the same allegations of « category fraud » (he shares a time of time almost identical to the co-star and the director Jesse Eisenberg), but they have not found that they have remained, he has won numerous victories, including criticism and independent prizes of the spirit, the balloons and many others.
Honestly, all the candidates here deserve the victory, but Jeremy Strong should succeed. Its transformation similar to the chameleon in the mentor of Trump Roy Cohn is a defining action of the career, The writer Voltor Bilge Ebiri arguesand the best performance of any capacity throughout 2024.
But while competing against his first Successful Culkin co-star and as an actress Sarah Snook Memory of a snail It is nominated for the best animated function, at least you can gossip that the three main brothers in Roy have the opportunity to go home with gold.
The best documentary
Probably: No other land
Maybe: Porcelain war
Should have won: Daughter
Prepare -s to scratch your head: as with The apprenticeThe shortlisted documentaries have struggled to find audiences. No more place is no more obvious than in the studied Doc of Israeli-Palestine No other land.
Therefore, many awards have given advantage to Porcelain warA more hopeful film and (at least for now), politically acceptable from the perspective of the artists who defend Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
If any of the two films prevail, it will be the third consecutive winner to focus on contemporary political violence. The last time it happened was when the category was introduced, during World War II.
Don’t let this distract you from the roller but magnificent, documentary DaughterAbout incarcerated men struggling to form connections with their daughters.
Better animated function
Probably: Flow
Maybe: It Wild robot
Should win: Memory of a snail
FlowAn unpleasant and free dialogue co -production is David against this year’s Goliath: Dreamworks’ It Wild robot. With this category that the negotiation wins in other awards that are directed to the Oscars, it is really a bet of anyone. Although the incredible emotional and technical achievement of Flow, With a estimated US budget of $ 4 million, increasing —front Wild robot, An inflated and divided narrative film with a US $ 80 million budget, Tirant me for the little one.
If I could choose it would be Memory of a snailThe Australian stop at the Australian stop on friendship, loss and snails. After seeing all short duties and nominees this year, Memory of a snail It is my favorite of all of them, for a mile of country.
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