President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has entered a knot of political problems this year with little precedent in his two decades at the power summit in Turkey.
The voters were angry at persistently high inflation. The popularity of his political party had sunk. And his opponents had coal a mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, who made it clear that he was assauling the presidency.
Then Wednesday, only four days before the mayor was appointed as a candidate for the presidency of the political opposition, dozens of police arrested him in his house on accusations of corruption and terrorism.
Mr. Erdogan’s enemies consider arrest a treatment to abort the presidential campaign of Mr. Imamoglu before it begins. In play, not only are those who will be the next President of Turkey, analysts, opposition leaders and foreign officials say, but to what point Turkey, one of the 20 largest economies in the world and a North -American ally in NATO, is still a democracy.
« Turkey has never been a perfect democracy, but arresting a presidency candidate is bringing this imperfection to another level, » said Arife Kose, a doctoral candidate studying Turkish politics at the University of Esta Anglia in Britain. Using state power to exclude competitive elections, he said, « it means that it is approaching a totally authoritarian country. »
Erdogan has dominated Turkish policy since 2003, first as Prime Minister as President since 2014. During this time he has overseen great economic growth and repeatedly led his party of justice and development governing the victory at the polls.
But in the last decade, according to its critics, it has solidified its control eroding Turkish democracy, storing the bureaucracy of the state with the faithful, cooperating the media to limit negative coverage and cultivate state prosecutors and judges to legally punish their enemies.
However, most experts have not considered Turkey an absolute autocracy, because many civilian freedoms are and opposition parties compete elections, and sometimes they win, as they did Municipal races across the country last year.
The question now, according to analysts, is if Turkey will remain a combination of democracy and autocracy or will move significantly towards the latter.
Except for the Imamoglu Mr. of the presidential career, Turkey would put Turkey in the League with countries such as Russia, Belarus or Azerbaijan, where the election pass, but they make little difference, said Hasan Sinar, a professor of criminal law at the Altinbas university in Istanbul, who also defends another elected officer in Istanbul.
« They have elections, but they are the so -called elections because the president himself is designing the opposition and decides who will go against him, » he said.
Erdogan has accused the opposition of trying to subvert the legal system and on Friday criticized the protests against the arrest of the mayor.
« We will certainly not allow public order to be damaged, » he said. « Because we have not transferred to terror in the street so far, we do not kneel to vandalism. »
On Friday afternoon, thousands of protesters challenged government bans in demonstrations to meet in the three largest cities in Turkey (Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir) and also in others. Police faced some protesters with tear gas and rubber bullets and the Ministry of the Interior he said On Saturday, 343 people had been arrested.
Protests seemed to be the largest in Turkey since then demonstrations against a development plan In Istanbul in 2013, which became large rallies that police suppressed. Five people were convicted by accusation of trying to demolish the Government. Human rights groups convene The « baseless » charges.
The political crisis occurred when Turkey was well positioned to benefit from recent world events. A rebel group that supported the new government in Syria. The Trump administration has shown little interest in whether its foreign partners follow the democratic standards. And the concern that the United States will no longer support Ukraine in their war with Russia have pushed European leaders to seek more defense links with Turkey.
These interests could be puzzled by foreign criticism of Mr. Erdogan’s governance, the analysts said. North -American officials have said little about the arrest of Mr. Imamoglu, but some European leaders have expressed their concerns.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany called the arrest on Thursday a « very bad sign » for Turkey’s relations with the European Union.
The current one, the second presidential term of Mr. Erdogan ends in 2028. The Constitution only allows two terms, but it could be re -executed -if the Parliament called early elections, which are expected widely. This could put Mr. Erdogan, 71, vote against Mr. Imamoglu, 54.
The arrest of the mayor followed a series of recent government movements against the perceived critics.
Since January, a well -known journalist and agent representing famous actors have been arrested in relation to the 2013 protests.
Last month, two maximum officials of a prominent business association criticized the Government’s economic program, the prosecutions of prominent figures and the insufficient adherence to the rule of law. State prosecutors were both accused by accusation of disseminating false information and recommended prison sentences of up to five and a half years.
Since October, authorities have taken three mayors from the Istanbul district due to accusations of corruption and terrorism. One has been replaced by a government named.
The least prominent figures have also fallen into government. An astrologer was detained last month and accused of insulting Mr. Erdogan and another senior politician. The Ministry of Commerce opened an investigation into a food Vlogger, which positively reviewed a restaurant subsidized by the city’s government of Mr Imamoglu to see if it had been paid to do it.
Imamoglu became mayor in a annoying victory in 2019. The Government obtained the results, quoting alleged irregularities, but in a reduction, Mr. Imamoglu again won by an even greater margin. He was re -elected last year, defeating a candidate endorsed by Mr. Erdogan.
During its mayor, the Government has launched 42 administrative and 51 judicial investigations of Mr. Imamoglu, according to their assistants. In one case, he is accused of corruption during a previous job as mayor of the district. He was convicted of another for insulting public officials shouting the judges who annulled their initial victory in 2019 « fools ». He has appealed the verdict.
Prior to this week’s arrest, its alma mater, the University of Istanbul, announced that it had annulled its diploma, citing undue procedures in its transfer from a university in Turks controlled in 1990. It has promised to appeal, but if the decision could be prevented from the presidency because the Constitution stipulates that the President must have a university degree.
Despite these road blockages, the popularity of Mr. Imamoglu has remained high, making it a threat to Mr. Erdogan, said Berk Esen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Sabanci in Istanbul.
« Erdogan made it clear that the train is moving, heading towards its direction and that it will not be able to stop it with normal means, » said Esen. As a result, Mr. Erdogan « went to the jugular ».
Prosecutors have accused Mr Imamoglu of leading a criminal organization and supervising bribes, offers and other crimes at the City Council. He is accused in a second investigation to support terrorism through his political coordination with a Pro-Kurd group.
Turkey’s opposition has pledged to advance on Sunday with the primary to appoint his presidency candidate and ask for protests against his arrest.
The Government has banned public demonstrations in large cities, closes the main streets and metro stations, and has restricted access to social media platforms. He has asked people to trust the legal process and insisted that the courts are independent.
« To try to associate investigations and judicial cases with our President is, to say -less, an act of boldness and irresponsibility, » said Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc, he told journalists on Wednesday, calling the separation of powers « a fundamental principle. »
« The judiciary does not take anyone’s orders, » he said.
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