When President Trump threatened the rates in Canada, Mexico and China in January, saying that those countries had to do more to stop the drug and migrants in the United States, Canadian and Mexican officials ran to Washington, bringing graphics and videos that detailed their efforts to harden their borders.
Canada created a « Fentanyl tsar » and pledged new resources to combat organized crime, while Mexico sent troops to the border and Cartel operation to the United States custody. As a result, Mr. Trump paused the north -North -Americans for 30 days.
China never made this kind of envelopes and, according to Mr. Trump, did not make great movements to stop Fentanyl’s flow in the United States. Thus, on February 4, Mr. Trump advanced to impose a 10 percent rate on all Chinese imports. Last week, the President said that on March 4 he would add 10 percent more above all existing Chinese rates.
Trump quickly moves to transform the commercial relationship of the United States. The Chinese move much more wisely and deliberately as they try to evaluate Mr. Trump and determine what is really from China. Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers, including Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have celebrated calls with his Chinese counterparts. But a call between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, a China leader, could not materialize.
The situation emphasizes the problem for foreign leaders in dealing with a president as unpredictable and unconventional as Mr. Trump, who is making substantial changes in commercial terms with little warning or preparation.
The Chinese do not want to start a conversation because they do not want to be considered as supplements and worry about offering concessions before they understand the parameters of the debate, according to people who knew the discussions. Instead, Chinese officials, scholars and others close to the Government have been having discreet talks to try to determine the reasons of Mr. Trump, while floating several aspects of a possible trade agreement between countries to evaluate the reaction of the North -Americans.
« With my experience with the Chinese, they suspect in the initial rounds of a negotiation that there are hidden traps or other reasons to be cautious, » said Michael Pillsbury, a China expert who advises the Trump administration to deal with the country.
The Chinese side has conveyed that they would like to work with the United States on mutually beneficial measures. But they have been struggling to identify people from the United States who consider reliable channels for communication, according to a person close to the Chinese government.
They are also trying to evaluate the importance of some recent steps by the administration, as a memorandum that proposed strict limits of investment Among the countries. Trump publicly contradicted this note days after signing the one, saying he welcomed Chinese investment.
« I think the Chinese are in a mode of hope and listening, » said Myron Brilliant, who has spent years working with companies to understand the Chinese and recently returned from a trip to China. « They are taking all kinds of entry, their queries begin, they still do not press the panic button. »
« There is a will, the appetite of making an agreement with the Trump administration, but China does not want preconditions about this and seeks more clarity in the parameters of an agreement, » said Mr. Brilliant, a superior counselor of DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, a consulting firm.
At the end of February, a delegation included Cui Tiankai, the former Chinese ambassador in the United States, met with Think Tanks representatives in Washington, according to more than half a dozen people who know each other.
During meetings and dinner, the Chinese delegation conveyed that the countries could achieve accommodation and floated ideas for a potential trade agreement, including important purchases of North -American agricultural products and Chinese investments in the United States, according to several people.
They requested China’s treatment as an equal partner and criticized the past measures taken by the Biden administration to « contain » China, such as export controls. The delegation also threatened that if the North -American rates came into force, China could withdraw a package of application of the law it had created to combat Fentanyl trade, which included information that could be used to pursue Chinese companies, according to one of the people. They acknowledged that the Chinese economy was struggling and that more rates could do -evil.
Current and old advisers and other relatives with Mr. Trump’s thinking say he has expressed interest in hitting a broad agreement With Mr. XI, which could involve Chinese purchases and investments, as well as cooperation in issues such as nuclear safety.
But Mr. Trump also believes that China renounced the agreement he signed with him by 2020 by not buying enough products. Trump also does not have aversion to increasing pressure on imposing Beijing the rates, seeing them as a source of leverage in the negotiations.
Trump has said he has a great relationship with Mr. XI and would like the Chinese to invest in the United States. When asked in February if he would make a trade agreement with China, Mr. Trump replied, « It’s possible. »
« We made a great trade agreement with China, » he said. « The problem is that Biden did not push them to adhere. »
Howard Lutnick, the Secretary of Commerce, said that instead of stopping the manufacture of Fentanyl, the Chinese gave « the maximum subsidy » to the people who made the ingredients.
« The Chinese need to stop this murder of North -Americans, » he said.
The rates that Mr. Trump has threatened to impose on China since he was in office are approximately comparable to those he imposed during his first administration, said Scott Kennedy, a leading advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Think Tank in Washington. In 2018, Trump put rates ranging from 7.5 to 25 percent in more than $ 350 million of Chinese imports, which remain in force.
« They are still the first days, » Kennedy said. « This must be seen as the floor of what is imposed, not the roof. »
Beijing has so far been cautious in reprisal, respond Mr. Trump’s first rate voucher with a more limited number. But he said he is willing to go furtherpossibly using your domain in the global supply chain for exact pain.
The Chinese delegation that included Mr. Cui had come to New York as a maximum diplomat in China, Wang Yi, visited the United Nations. Although Mr. Wang did not continue in Washington, according to a source, the Chinese embassy helped organize meetings for Mr. Cui in the country’s capital.
Communist Party High officials, including Fang Xinghai, the former director of the China Market Regulator and the Zhu Min economist, also traveled to Washington and met with some members of the community and the Think Tank government.
The Chinese seem to be exploring the best points of contact for their government. In the previous Trump administration, President’s son -in -law, Jared Kushner, was important among the figures in the private sector. Recently, the Chinese have been testing the role that Elon Musk – who has broad business interests in China through Tesla – will play the Trump administration.
In private, the Chinese have indicated their desire to start negotiating an agreement, but they want to know that they have direct access to Mr. Trump.
« It seems that there is a sense that Beijing blames what has happened to the poor channels of communication, » said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at Center Stimson, a Washington research group.
Chinese scholars and Think Tank officials have begun to float several ideas for a trade agreement. One of the proposals is that the Chinese make large investments in the United States in areas such as electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels, which could create 500,000 North -American jobs, according to a person with direct knowledge of the proposal. In an unusual movement, Chinese companies would be willing to graduate technology to North -American partners and minority stakes in companies to mitigate national security concerns, the person said.
Another provisional offer is the purchase of goods and services of the United States in Agriculture, Aerospace, Energy and possibly even technology. The Chinese have also suggested buying more treasures from the United States and have recently affected a Nations movement, including China and Russia to create a new reserve currency, threatening the north -American dollar. The Chinese have proposed that Beijing could defend this effort.
Chinese diplomats and academics have indicated that Beijing can also help the United States to reach an agreement between Russia and Ukraine and to help the reconstruction of Ukraine.
In return, the Chinese have suggested that the United States should commit to stabilizing the economic relationship. This could be abstaining from more technological rates and controls and allowing for more Chinese investments in the United States.
Given the concerns of national security in the United States about the narrowest links to China, it is not clear that both parties could find agreement on any of these problems. And some analysts say that Mr. Trump’s movements on triumphal rates are making any conciliation of the Chinese less likely, as Mr. XI will not want to look like Mr. Trump hurt.
« We are seeing that opportunities will fly, and while waiting, more hostility is in the room and there is less time for the two parties to reach an agreement, » said Mrs. Sun.
Minho Kim Contributed reports.
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