BBC News, Toronto
If you had asked the Canadians for a few months now, the next country’s general election, the majority would have planned a decisive victory for the Conservative Party.
This result does not seem so safe now.
Following the threats of United States President Donald Trump against Canada, the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has increased in the polls, reducing the two -digit leadership that his conservative rivals had constantly maintained since mid -2013.
The dramatic change in the country’s political landscape reflects how Trump’s rates and his repeated calls to turn Canada « the 51st state » have mainly modified the priorities of Canadian voters.
Trump’s rhetoric has « moved away all other issues » that were most important for the Canadians before their inauguration on January 20, emphasizes Luc Turgeon, a professor of political science at the University of Ottawa.
He has even managed to relive the Trudeau once deeply unpopular, whose approval rate has risen at 12 points since December. The Prime Minister, of course, will not be in power for a long time, having announced his resignation earlier this year.
On Sunday, their liberals will declare the results of the leadership competition to determine who is in charge of a party leading a precarious minority government. The new leader will have two immediate decisions to make: How to respond to Trump’s threats and when to call the general election. The answer to the first dilemma will surely influence the second.
The federal elections must be held on October 20 or before October 20, but they could be called as soon as this week.
Surveys indicate that many Canadians still want a change at the top. But what this change would be, a liberal government under a new leadership, or a complete change to the conservatives, is now the assumption of anyone, says Greg Lyle, president of the Toronto Innovative Research Group, who has surveyed Canadians about their changing attitudes.
« So far, it was a explosion for conservatives, » he tells the BBC.
Pictures of gettyThis is because the center-right party led by Pierre Poilievre, has been effective in its messaging on issues that have been occupied by the Canadian psyche in recent years: the increasing cost of life, the unbearably unabasibility of housing, crime and a tensioned healthcare system.
Poilievre successfully tied these problems from society to what labeled Trudeau’s « disastrous » policies and promised a return to « common sense policy ».
But with Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s threats with the economic security of Canada and even his sovereignty, that the courier has become obsolete, according to Lyle. Its poll suggests that most of the country is more afraid of Trump’s presidency and the impact it will have on Canada.
Trump 25% rates for all Canadian imports in the United States, some of which have stopped until April 2, could be devastating for the Canada economy, which sends three quarters of all their products to the United States. As a result, officials have planned up to one million work losses, and Canada could go to a recession if the goods tax persist.
Trudeau did not doubt the gravity that the threat is taking, when he told journalists this week that Trump’s reason for U.S. rates – the flow of Fentanil on the border – was false and unjustified.
« What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because this will facilitate annex to us, » said the Prime Minister.
« In many ways, it is a fundamental problem and encompassed about the survival of the country, » Professor Turgeon tells the BBC. Therefore, those who are better to face Canada against Trump has become the key question of the next election.
Conservatives are still ahead of the polls, with the last averages that suggest that 40% of voters return them. In the meantime, the liberals’ fortunes have been revived, with their support rising up to a little over 30%, up to 10 points from January.
Pictures of gettyThe Liberals have sought to highlight the similarities between the conservative leader and the Republican President. In the leadership debate last week, the candidates referred to Poilievre as « our small version of Trump here at home » and said he was looking for « imitating » the President of the United States. An attack of liberal party attack juxtaposed clips of the two using similar sentences such as « False News » and « Radical Left ».
There are clear differences, however, between the two politicians, in terms of style and substance. And Trump himself has come down with parallels, telling the viewer of the British magazine in a recent interview that Poilievre is « not enough magician ».
However, the polls suggest a sliding of conservative support. A recent National Survey Angus Reid poll indicates that Canadians believe that Mark Carney, the liberal leader leader, is better equipped to deal with Trump about rates and trade issues than Poilievre.
The former Central Banquer of both Canada and England is explaining his experience related to economic crises, including the financial fall of 2008 and Brexit.
And the change in the political mood has forced conservatives to recalculate their messaging.
If the election is called soon, the campaign will take place at a time when Trump’s threats have inspired fierce patriotism among the Canadians. Many are boycott American goods In their local grocery stores or even cancel trips to the United States.
Professor Turgeon says this « concentration around the flag » has become a key issue in Canadian politics.
The conservatives have moved away from their slogan « Canada », which Mr. Lyle says he took risk to find himself as « anti-patriotic », in « Canada first ».
Conservatives have also redirected their attacks on Cardney. Before Trump’s rates, they published ads saying he is « just like Justin » in an attempt to tie it to Trudeau. But in recent weeks, the conservatives have begun to excavate CARNEY Loyalty to Canada.
Specifically, they were asked if he played a role in moving the Brookfield headquarters Asset Management (a Canadian investment company) in Toronto in New York when he served as president.
Carney responded that he had left the signature when this decision was made, but the company documents informed by the CBC public broadcaster show that the Council approved the move in October 2024, when Carney was still in Brookfield.
The movement, and the mistake of card of his participation with it, was criticized by the publishing newspaper of the National Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail, which wrote on Thursday that Carney must be transparent with the Canadians.
In a wider way, the document wrote: « Each party leader must understand that Canada enters a period of uncertainty for years. The next Prime Minister will have to ask for the confidence of the Canadians to run the country where he has to go, but he may not want to go. »
Given the anxiety that they reverberate among the Canadians, Lyle says that any ambiguity about Cardney’s loyalty in the country could be detrimental to him and the liberals.
Whenever the election arrives and who wins, one thing is true: Trump will continue to influence and remodel Canadian politics as he has in the United States.
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