The growing trade war between the United States and almost all its main commercial partners has led to a large number of predictions and concerns that a global recession could be around the corner.
And economists who spoke to CBC News say one is virtually inevitable, Unless we see a great US pivot soon.
« I don’t know how we would avoid it, » said Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Power and politics On Monday.
« This is a very dark scenario, both for the United States and, by extension, Canada and the rest of the world. »
After the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who announced last week’s world rates, JP Morgan’s signature was a global recession possibility of 60 percent, up to 40 percent at the end of March.
« We have not seen this type of war of fare trade in 100 years, » said Moshe Lander, a leading professor of economics at the university, in reference when the United States marked the rates after the 1929 bag market fall.
He said that these rates retreated when Washington trade partners retaliated.
« Entering -Ne one while talking »
A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of a country’s GDP. In a global recession, these losses would occur in various economies worldwide, says Tu Nguyen, an economist at RSM Canada.
He said that there is no definition of « stone configuration » for the number of countries that must have a crisis, but with the great economies, including China and the European Union, which face commercial uncertainty in the midst of the heavy rates of the United States, writing on the wall is clear.
« If the United States does not change its policy position on the rates … We hope that a recession will be defined in the next six months, » said Nguyen.
« I think it is reasonable to say that we are entering one while we are talking. »
Zandi forecasts that the United States will begin to feel the effects of a recession in June or July if Trump « does not find a ramp ».
The clash between the United States and China, the « two largest economies on the planet by orders of magnitude » is one of the biggest obstacles.
Because countries counter the world’s President of the United States, Donald Trump, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi tells Power & Politics that a global recession is likely to arrive in June or July, and « there is no backward » if the United States cannot be unreconated soon.
After China coincided with Trump’s rates, it charged even more, which means that when the last rates began Wednesday, China’s imports will be 104 percent.
« If the two countries continue to increase their rate for Tat, we will end up with very little trade between the two countries and the fall of this will be very difficult to overcome, » said Zandi.
Global vs. National Recessions
A global recession is not done equally in all countries. For example, during the world financial crisis of 2008, Canada went through a period of reduced economic activity, but « it was good, everything considered, » said Nguyen.
However, the positioning of Canada in this discomfort is not good.
Andrew Dicapua, the main economist of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, says that, while Canada seemed to have been saved by last week’s rates, « The reality is that, if the United States fall into the recession, Canada and Mexico will inevitably feel the worst of the impact, given the integration of our economies. »
Investors around the world are increasing alarm bells after a third day of chaos in the rates related to a Trump Allent billionaire, even not being warned that not withdrawing from the rates could trigger a « self-induced, self-induced nuclear winter. »
Exactly how the Global Rates will affect the Canada GDP or the labor market will not be evident for months, although in March it saw a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the midst of faces, reversing the growth seen at the end of last year.
But economists predict that as global rates make the goods less accessible and more expensive, consumers will retire from purchases and investments, reducing demand and increasing the likelihood of layoffs.
« The layoffs are already beginning, especially in the sectors closely linked to the North -American supply chains, like the Autos, and we begin to see that it is reflected in the data of the labor market, » said Dicapua.
Reduced hiring and more companies that go to the recession will continue in a recession, which makes it difficult to get up or change jobs. In the meantime, life will become more expensive.
« The typical north -American home will have to spend $ 2,100 (USA) more a year to buy the same goods that are today, » if things do not change, Zandi said.
There is still a way to avoid a global recession, but this would depend on the United States by reducing or completely eliminating its rates.
« The ramp to prevent this must come from the United States, » Nguyen said, adding that speed is essential.
« The longer it continues, the more layoffs will pass, the more factories they would only close because they cannot operate under the new rules of the rates. »
The Trump administration has scheduled conversations with South Korea and Japan, and the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, next week. But right now, all specific rates in the country are advancing.
« The important thing to remember is that this is completely induced by the United States, » said Nguyen. « It’s not something we were blindly like Covid-19 Pandemic, for example. But it has an impact worldwide. »
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