The National Flag of Japan climbs to the headquarters of the Bank of Japan in Tokyo on May 30, 2024.
Kazuhiro NOGI | AFP | Pictures of getty
The Central Bank of Japan maintained its key policy rate on Wednesday by 0.5% in a unanimous vote, as the country related to export evaluates the potential impact of Protectionist trade policies by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, on his economy.
The movement, which was in line with the expectations of the market, arrives ahead of the United States Federal Reserve Meeting of politicswhere the central bank is expected to maintain the constant reference interest rate.
« The Japanese economy has been recovered moderately, although some weakness has been partly seen, » said in a statementAlthough he warns the « high uncertainties that surround the economic activity and prices of Japan, including the evolving situation with respect to trade … and the salary of domestic companies and the behavior of price fixation ».
It is seen that the bank refers to reciprocal rates and specific rates in the sector that Trump will announce on April 2, said Hiroki Shimazu, a strategist of MCP Asset Management Japan.
Investors will supervise the Press Conference of the Governor of Boj Kazuo Ueda at 3:30 pm on Wednesday, for tracks on the potential calendar of the next rise in the rate, said Shimazu.
Not specifically mentioning Trump’s rates, UEDA said last week that it was “Very worried about uncertainty surrounding economic developments abroad.
Following the fare decision, the Japanese Ien moved little, negotiating 149.46 against the North -American dollar. Nikkei 225 reference index increased by 0.69%.
Analysts consider the Boj to increase interest rates soon, but are divided into the calendar for the next hike.
Fred Neumann, an economist in Asia of HSBC, said that the Boj could increase interest rates in June.
« June seems more likely. The market is a little later, probably July is what the market is thinking right now. We think that a little earlier in June, » said Neumann in « Squawk Box Asia » on Wednesday.
« It not only depends on the Fed. It actually depends on the Boj, obtaining some evidence that the salaries that are percola through the economy, » said Neumann.
« We have only negotiated the main unions, we do not know what the smaller unions do, we do not know what the small or medium -sized businesses do, so the Boj tends to wait until June to obtain all the tests on the salaries and then they can throw the trigger. »
The Boj increased short -term rates to 0.5% of 0.25% in January, its highest level since 2008After finishing a mass stimulus program last year. The Central Bank has pointed out its preparation to increase the rise rates if economic growth and inflation fit its projections.
« Virtuous Cycle »
The Boj has long reiterated that its goal is to see a « virtuous cycle » of the increase in prices and salaries in Japan.
Japan’s largest labor union announced on Friday that it managed to secure an average 5.46% increase in wages From April, its greatest increase of more than three decades.
The Japanese union confederation, or Rengo, which has around 7 million members, said that the first tab of the results covered by 760 unions was 0.18 percentage points higher than the increase of 5.28%last year.
Small or medium -sized businesses recorded an increase in the average rate of 5.09%, up to 0.67 percentage points compared to last year and the first time since 1992 that the salary increases for these companies exceeded the 5%brand.
Ua Zensen, an umbrella group that represented the retail, restaurant and other unions in the industry, according to 139 of their unions received An average increase of 5.37% in monthly salaries For full -time workers, slightly less than 2024 figure of 5.91%.
In January, Japan saw a High inflation rate of 2 years of 4%even Home expense exceeded expectations in DecemberWith an increase of 2.7% year after year.
The December figure was the fastest than household spending had risen since August 2022 and the first year -on -year increase since July 2024. Homes spending was later slowed in January to an increase of 0.8%.
« Inflation expectations have increased moderately, » the Boj said in the Wednesday statement, adding that « rice prices are likely to be at high levels, and that the effects of government measures will drive inflation to dissipate » during the 2025 fiscal year.
Fourth quarter -reviewed GDP figures published last week were displayed Japanese economy grew 2.2% Annualized, a slower rhythm than initially informed. The revised data was also less than the median forecast of economists.
– Sam Meredith of CNBC contributed to this report.
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